![]() Likely to be the pick of the weekend with temperatures warming back to more seasonable levels (mid 70s to low 80s). Sunday now looks to be a transition day back towards more seasonable temperatures and dry weather as subsidence is induced by shortwave ridging aloft, as the pesky upper level low finally moves east. Have brought Probability of Precipitation up into the isolated to scattered shower range. Conditions should be overall similar to Thurs and Fri, albeit with slightly warmer temps. This seems reasonable as the mid/upper level pattern remains blocky/slow-to-progress. The more noticeable change compared to prior forecasts is that the upper low from late-weekend now looks to linger around for another day, into Saturday. Highs mainly upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the lower to mid 50s. heating driving increasing cloud coverage). Though a slow warming trend anticipated through late week into Sat, expect highs to run cooler than normal given the cool profiles aloft and "destructive" sunshine (e.g. Expect cloud cover and showers to decrease each evening. Despite the showers around to dodge, there also will be several hrs of dry weather around. It looks like instability will be too limited to permit these diurnally driven cloudiness deepening to the point where thunder would be a possibility. With a cool pocket of air aloft (850 mb temps in the mid single digits C range) and some moisture around, expect diurnally-driven increases in cloud cover along with pop-up/hit-or-miss showers at scattered net coverage. A large/broad upper level low over Nova Scotia/ME vicinity will continue to govern our weather in this period, making slow eastward progress. Models and their ensemble means remain in good agreement on the overall pattern to close the workweek. * Better opportunity for widespread rains early next week but it is still unclear which day(s) may have better rain chances. * Dry weather for Sunday with temps warming back to near or slightly above seasonable levels. Temps cooler than normal, but they do warm each successive day. * Increased daytime cloudiness with scattered hit-or-miss showers Thurs thru Sat, with clouds and showers diminishing each evening. Near to below normal temperatures continue. The lift looks less robust, so coverage should be less. ![]() As such, a continued risk for diurnal showers during the afternoon and evening. Still no real changes to the overall synoptic pattern, with a mid level cutoff nearby and a surface low pressure lingering between northern New England and Maritimes. SHORT TERM /5am WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Per the 12z HRRR-Smoke near-surface smoke model output from today, Canadian wildfire smoke concentrations should reduce tonight and into most of the morning however potential exists for lower-altitude smoke to be observed in western MA and western and central CT Wednesday afternoon. Smoky conditions still continue with several sites reporting either HZ or FU with a wide range in visibility from 2 to over 6 miles. Given that no coastal flooding of significance was observed yesterday, we expect only splashover to result with the overnight high tide. As described in the coastal flood section, astro tides are still high albeit lower than yesterday. Previous discussion below.Īfter coordination with NWS Gray, we've decided to hoist a Coastal Flood Statement for the early-overnight high tide for the eastern MA coast and Nantucket. Temps overnight slightly cooler than normal, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s, mid 50s for Boston. Therefore, only expecting scattered showers late this evening with isolated thunder and then trending toward dry weather after midnight, as short wave moves offshore. ![]() Cloud tops are warming now and lightning trends are down. Short wave trough moving across the area coupled with steep mid level lapse rates resulted in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5am WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Brief dry weather with a warming trend for Sunday, before our weather turns more unsettled with our next chance for widespread showers or thunderstorms either Monday or Tuesday. While not as cool as this past weekend, still expecting near to below normal temperatures with mostly hit-or-miss showers during the daytime into early this weekend. There will also be some near ground level smoke at times as a result of the ongoing Canadian wildfires. National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
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